2022 Q3-4 Supply Chain Trend Forecast – Freight Cost & Volume|HKTDC

hktdc.com Sourcing】Global supply chain disruptions continue in 2022. Pandemic measures and political instability factors are causing container clog and soaring freight costs. Problems with supply chain remains in the first half of 2022. Will the situation remain or improve in the coming months? What should traders do to prepare for the unexpected?

2022 Q3-4 Supply Chain Trend Forecast – Freight Cost & Volume|HKTDC
Global supply chain disruptions continue in 2022. Will the situation improve in the coming months?

1.Hong Kong Air Import and Export Volume – Increasing Steadily

According to Census and Statistics Department, from 1993 to 2022, air import is increasing steadily. 2022 Air import and export volume are $1135 billion and 797 billion as of May 31st.

In the 1st half of 2022, volume is increasing in a slower rate than 2021. 5th wave of Covid couldbe one of the factors for causing a drop in import and export volume in Q1 2022. Therefore, the market is still recovering from the impact from pandemic with steady growth. Although the YOY % change is much slower than 2021, there was a double-digit growth of 15.4% in May.

2.Hong Kong Sea import and Export Volume – Fluctuating

Comparing with air, sea import and export are fluctuating over the years, with YOY% change can be as high as 60% or a negative growth. Average monthly sea imports and exports are around $52,000 million and $51,000 million in these two years.

3.Global Freight Cost – Container Price Dropped

In the first half of 2022, sea container price is decreasing as reference to Freightos Baltic Index (FBI). From over USD 9000 in January, the price dropped to USD 6600 at the end of June.

4.Global Freight Cost – Air Freight Rates Decreased

According to IATA, there was a drop of 11% in global air cargo market demand in 2022. With a decrease in demand, air freight rate decreases as well. According to Freightos Air Index, although air freight rate is still 3 times higher than pre-pandemic price, air freight rates decreased by 38% starting from May.

2022 Trend in Q3 and Q4 Forecast:

1.Hong Kong Export and Import Volume

We are expecting a steady growth on both import and export volume in air and sea transport in the 2nd half of 2022 as the city is recovering from 5th wave of Covid. With easing pandemic control measures, the market will resume steadily.

2.Global Freight Cost

We are expecting a continuous fall on both ocean and air freight in the coming quarters as countries are relaxing pandemic control measures. Economic activities are resumed and most countries are trying their best to get back to work. Shortage over ocean and air freight will be solved gradually with sufficient workforce.

2022 Q3-4 Supply Chain Trend Forecast – Freight Cost & Volume|HKTDC
Global air cargo market demand drops 11% in 2022, according to IATA.

However, Stay Alert!

However, traders should always stay alert with geopolitical events overseas as these may cause far-reaching and drastic impact on trade. Here are some recent events affecting international trade:

  1. China’s strict zero-Covid policy
  2. Labor strike at major European ports
  3. Ongoing war in Ukraine

To summarize, supply chain disruptions are expected to improve gradually in the 2nd half of2022 in general, although there is still a high level of uncertainty that traders should notoverlook.

Ivy Tse - the Co-Chief Executive Officer & Co-founder of FreightAmigo,

Ivy Tse - the Co-Chief Executive Officer & Co-founder of FreightAmigo,

Ivy Tse has 15 years of regional management experience in several Fortune Global 100 companies, including ICT, cloud services & the logistics industry. She is also an ISO 9001 auditor, awarded as 2021 Deloitte Tech Fast Female Award Winner and a member of the Hong Kong Logistics Development Council since 2021. With the mission “Make Trade Easier”, FreightAmigo is a one-stop supply chain finance eMarketPlace pioneer in Asia founded in 2017, connecting over 300+ global shippers, financial institutions, insurance companies and logistics service providers in one platform.

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