Global trade uncertainties have been the key issue surrounding international trade in 2025. As the year draws to a close, HKTDC Research foresees that in 2026, the outlook for Hong Kong’s merchandise exports is expected to remain positive.
Here’s a detailed summary of what to expect for Hong Kong’s exports in 2026.
Export Performance Better Than Expected in 2025
Putting the past year in perspective, Hong Kong’s exports grew by 13.8% year‑on‑year (YoY) in the first 10 months of 2025. This unexpectedly robust performance was down to sustained demand for AI‑enabled electronic devices (especially computer equipment and related items) (See Table 1). Beyond that, exports in the Toys and Games sector enjoyed a significant rebound, rising by 33.2% YoY, following their 2024 plunge of 21.8%. HKTDC Research estimates that Hong Kong’s total export will have grown by about 13% for 2025 as a whole.
Mixed Performance Across Major Export Markets
Reviewing the performance of the city’s key export markets, both Chinese Mainland (up 15.8%) and the ASEAN bloc (up 31.6%), Hong Kong’s two largest markets, recorded double‑digit growth YoY in the 10‑months to October 2025. At the same time, with the exception of South Korea, exports were up in the city’s other key Asian markets. Nonetheless, over the same period, exports to the US moderately increased by 3.1% YoY, while exports to the EU fell by 2.9% YoY.
Sustained Demand for AI-Related Electronics
In terms of product mix, AI‑related products emerged as the central driver of world trade growth in 2025. In particular, Hong Kong’s electronics sector, which accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong’s total export value, benefited from this AI‑driven trade. Considering the ongoing prioritization of AI‑related digital transformation, demand for associated electronic products will, inevitably, be a decisive element in Hong Kong’s future export performance (See Chart 2).
Strong Export Growth for the Year Ahead
All things considered, HKTDC Research is optimistic with regard to Hong Kong’s 2026 export performance. In light of this, it is forecasting export growth of 8‑9% for the next 12 months, regardless of the high base comparison in 2025 (See Chart 5).
Explore Full Research Findings
Access detailed insights, including methodologies, via:
Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook: Sustained AI Product Demand Set to Drive 8-9% Growth Over Coming Year
Learn More About AI-Related Products & Robotics
To support SMEs in digital transformation and robotics application, HKTDC Digital Academy will be organizing a hybrid seminar titled AI x Robotics: Low-Barrier Entry Strategy to Empower Marketing and Accelerate Business Growth on 14 January, 2026 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, featuring:
- Kit Wong – Founder, Wavenex
- Albert Lam – Founder, Novelte Robotics
- Kay Leung – Founder, Digitify Online Growth
The industry experts will share insights on advanced AI applications beyond image creation and content writing, and how to choose the right robotics solutions to boost marketing efficiency and expand into overseas markets.
Join the panel discussion online by clicking the banner below for registration:
In addition, visit InnoEX, the one-of-its-kind tech fair in April 2026, to discover groundbreaking technologies which shape the business world for tomorrow!
Click the following banner to pre-register:
At the same time, source safe and quality electronics and AI-related products, among other product categories, on our e-Marketplace now:
Hong Kong Export Outlook 2026 FAQ
1. What factors will drive export growth in 2026?
- Sustained global demand for AI-related electronics.
- Continuous digital transformation across industries.
- Expansion of robotics and smart technologies into mainstream applications.
2. How did Hong Kong’s exports perform in 2025?
Exports grew by 13.8% year-on-year (YoY) in the first 10 months of 2025. This strong performance was largely fueled by ongoing demand for AI-enabled electronics and a rebound in the Toys and Games sector (+33.2% YoY).
3. What is the main focus of Hong Kong’s export growth in 2026?
The key focus is on AI-related products and electronics, which represent about two-thirds of total exports. These AI-enabled devices — especially computer equipment and related components — are driving sustained export growth.
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