GBA Business Confidence Overview
The Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index (GBAI), developed with the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), shows that the Greater Bay Area (GBA) economy remained in the expansionary zone in Q4 2025 despite weaker demand and slowing investment.
The current performance index eased 4.4 points to 50.3, reflecting softer activity, while the expectations index slid 4.7 points to 51, signaling caution about near‑term investment and financing. Yet, expectations for production/sales, new orders, and profits stayed above 50 — indicating continued, albeit moderate, growth momentum.
Sectoral and City Divergence: Top GBA Performers
Professional services and retail & wholesale sectors outperformed, with headline indices rising to 55.3 and 55.1, respectively. In contrast, manufacturing, trading, and financial services dipped below 50, suggesting contractionary pressure likely linked to global trade headwinds and cost concerns.
Notably, Hong Kong led the region, with its headline index improving to 54.9, buoyed by stronger business activity and credit conditions. Meanwhile, Shenzhen and Foshan saw declines as earlier gains normalised.
Strategic Shifts: Expanding Beyond Asia
A key finding reveals that nearly 55% of GBA companies are exploring business expansion in the Middle East, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. This reflects businesses’ attempts to diversify markets and tap into high‑growth economies aligned with Belt and Road initiatives. Additionally, nearly all respondents view Hong Kong’s professional services — especially in finance, logistics, and legal support — as essential enablers for overseas ventures.
Business Implications for Global Buyers and Suppliers
For global partners, these results suggest an environment of resilient optimism — where demand moderation co-exists with a strong push toward international diversification.
Buyers can expect more stable supply networks out of Hong Kong and southern China, while suppliers have opportunities to engage GBA firms seeking partnerships in cross‑border trade, innovation, and Middle Eastern markets.
Explore Full Research Findings
Access detailed insights, including download link to the full PDF report, via:
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GBA FAQ
1. What is the Greater Bay Area (GBA)?
The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area is an integrated economic zone in southern China that includes 11 cities, with core hubs such as Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. It combines strengths in finance, manufacturing, logistics, technology, and innovation to serve as a global growth engine.
2. What opportunities do GBA trends offer global buyers and suppliers?
The GBA’s continued stability and innovation make it a key sourcing and trade hub. Global buyers can expect resilient supply chains, while suppliers can partner with GBA firms to co-develop new products, localize technologies, and expand into new markets—particularly the Middle East.
3. How can international businesses engage with the GBA?
- Build partnerships through Hong Kong’s trade and finance ecosystem.
- Explore collaboration in innovation, digital trade, and sustainable manufacturing.
- Use GBA hubs for regional distribution and R&D localization.
